Risk Solver Engine is the first product
designed to support the concepts of Probability Management. In
addition to best-in-class support for Interactive Simulation, it
provides direct support for Certified Distributions and Stochastic Libraries.
Certified Distributions
A Certified Distribution is a custom probability
distribution, created and/or reviewed by an expert, that is made
available to end user modelers as a prepackaged unit.
These modelers need only the name of the Certified
Distribution; they need not choose, or even be aware of, its
analytic form, parameters or correlations.
An analytic Certified Distribution can be given
its own random number seed, which overrides a user-specified
seed for the model. This ensures that end user modelers employing
the Certified Distribution will use the same samples
(sequence of Monte Carlo trials) each time they run a simulation –
as long as they use the same simulation software package and version.
Given the capacity of modern computers and
networks, an even better idea is to create and distribute Certified
Distributions in the form of Stochastic Libraries. Such
libraries contain pre-generated trial data for a group of
(potentially statistically dependent) distributions. The sequence of
trials is predetermined, so that if two or more end users develop
and run simulation models using the same Stochastic Library, their
model results can be compared and combined, on a trial-by-trial
basis if necessary. The models are said to be coherent.
Risk Solver Engine supports the use of both
analytic distributions and Stochastic Libraries as
Certified Distributions.
Next: Publishing and Using Certified
Distributions
Back to Risk Solver Engine Product
Overview
