NEW! Risk Solver Engine Version 8.0 features new support for publishing and using Certified Distributions. A new property function PsiCertify() may be used to name and publish either an analytic distribution (with specific parameters and random number seed) or a Stochastic Library in the form of a SIP or SLURP. End user modelers can access published distributions using PsiCertified(name) -- they need not know anything further about the form, parameters, or correlation of the Certified Distribution.
NEW! Risk Solver Engine Version 8.0 defines and automatically tests for two properties of a risk analysis model. A model is said to be Certified if all its uncertain variables are defined by Certified Distributions. A model is said to be Coherent if all of its Certified Distributions draw their trial data from one consistent source -- either a set of analytic distributions with one common rank correlation matrix, or a set of SIPs that are part of one SLURP. Such models can be compared and “rolled up' with other models based on the same source of uncertainties.
NEW! To make it easier to exchange models, Risk Solver Engine provides a toolbar button to ‘freeze' a model, which saves each formula containing PSI function calls in a cell comment, and replaces the cell formula with its current value. A ‘frozen' model can be opened and used in any user's copy of Microsoft Excel. The model can be ‘thawed' later via another Risk Solver Engine toolbar button.
NEW! Risk Solver Engine V8.0 includes six new probability distributions, such as the Myerson distribution, plus new and better algorithms for generating samples from many existing distributions. Risk Solver Engine now has better numerics for these distributions than some Monte Carlo simulation products for Excel that have been on the market for many years. Distribution fitting has also been improved -- Risk Solver Engine can now fit 22 different continuous and discrete distributions to user-supplied data.
NEW! When building a rank correlation matrix, you may have realistic correlation values between your key distributions, but insufficient information about all sources of uncertainty to fill out the matrix. To help you create the matrix, Risk Solver Engine includes methods to test a matrix, and to transform an incomplete or inconsistent matrix into a ‘nearest' matrix that is positive semidefinite (PSD). Unlike other Monte Carlo simulation products for Excel, Risk Solver Engine can find a PSD matrix that leaves your correlations among key distributions nearly unchanged.
Unique: Risk Solver Engine supports the practice of Probability Management and Coherent Modeling in large organizations. In addition to Interactive Simulation, Risk Solver Engine directly supports Stochastic Libraries, both on the Excel spreadsheet and in Excel VBA. Certified Distributions, created by experts and based on either analytic probability distributions or SIPs (Stochastic Information Packets) and SLURPs (Stochastic Library Units, Relationships Preserved), can make simulation models far easier to create, analyze and compare.
Powerful: Risk Solver Engine supports more than 40 analytic probability distributions, from PsiBernoulli() to PsiWeibull(). You can easily shift, truncate and correlate probability distributions. A special feature of Risk Solver Engine is its ability to display simulation trials and summary statistics instantly each time the spreadsheet changes. You simply create formulas that compute functions of your random variables, then refer to these computed results in other formulas with PsiMean(), PsiVariance(), PsiPercentile(), and similar functions.
Powerful: You can easily write VBA (Visual Basic Application Edition) macros in Excel that control Risk Solver Engine. Define a Problem and instantiate it from the spreadsheet with two lines of code, then access the uncertain elements of your model via Variable and Function objects. Perform simulations, access trials and summary statistics, and present them the way you want to your end user.