Risk Analysis with Interactive Simulation and Lightning-Fast Simulation Optimization
Risk Solver Engine is an exciting new approach to Monte Carlo simulation that empowers you to play 'what if' with uncertain values as easily as you do with ordinary numbers. Each time you change a number on the spreadsheet, a simulation with thousands of trials is performed -- often in no more time than a single spreadsheet recalculation -- and a full range of simulation results and statistics can be displayed. By writing macros in Excel VBA, you can fully control Risk Solver Engine and create custom risk analysis applications.
The Magic of Interactive Simulation
If you've used a traditional tool for building Monte Carlo simulation models, in Microsoft Excel or otherwise, you're in for a surprise -- and a treat. Risk analysis for uncertain models becomes as easy as asking 'what if'. Suddenly, you find that insights about the model, and decisions you can make, start to flow intuitively. Early users have called this instant, interactive feedback "addictive." In Dr. Sam Savage's words,
“Risk Solver Engine does for uncertainty what the spreadsheet did for numbers.”
Powered by PSI Technology™
Risk Solver Engine uses Frontline's Polymorphic Spreadsheet Interpreter technology to achieve breakthrough simulation speeds -- up to 100 times faster than normal Excel-based Monte Carlo simulation -- thus making Interactive Simulation practical every time you change a number on the spreadsheet.
PSI Technology™ was first developed to greatly enhance the performance of the Premium Solver Platform, Frontline's leading product for optimization in Microsoft Excel. It uses vectorized evaluation to effectively compute hundreds or thousands of Monte Carlo trials in parallel, for unmatched speed and responsiveness.
Support for Probability Management Concepts
Risk Solver Engine supports the practice of Probability Management and Coherent Modeling in large organizations, proposed by Dr. Sam Savage in articles appearing in the February and April 2006 issues of the INFORMS publication OR/MS Today.
In addition to Interactive Simulation on every spreadsheet recalculation, Risk Solver Engine directly supports Stochastic Libraries, both on the Excel spreadsheet and in Excel VBA. Certification Authorities such as the "Chief Probability Officer" proposed by Dr. Savage can approve such libraries for use in Risk Solver Engine.
Certified Distributions, created by experts and based on either analytic probability distributions or SIPs (Stochastic Information Packets) and SLURPs (Stochastic Library Units, Relationships Preserved), can make simulation models far easier to create, analyze and compare.
Excel Functions for Monte Carlo Models
Risk Solver Engine supports more than 40 analytic probability distributions, from PsiBernoulli() to PsiWeibull(). You can easily shift, truncate and correlate probability distributions with property functions such as PsiShift(), PsiTruncate() and PsiCorrMatrix(). But you can also simplify model building by using Certified Distributions, accessed via PsiSip() and PsiSlurp() functions in Excel.
A special feature of Risk Solver Engine is its ability to display simulation trials and summary statistics, instantly each time the spreadsheet changes. You simply create formulas that compute functions of your random variables, then refer to these computed results in other formulas with PsiMean(), PsiVariance(), PsiPercentile(), and similar functions. PsiFrequency() instantly gives you a frequency distribution across simulation trials, and the Excel Chart Wizard gives you a quick graphical depiction of your results.
VBA Objects/Properties for Monte Carlo Models
You can easily write VBA (Visual Basic Application Edition) macros in Excel that control Risk Solver Engine. Define a Problem and instantiate it from the spreadsheet with two lines of code, then access the uncertain elements of your model via Variable and Function objects. Perform simulations, access trials and summary statistics, and present them the way you want to your end user. All the power of the Excel object model is available, including database access, charts and graphs, and custom dialogs and controls.
Risk Solver Engine's VBA object model closely resembles the object-oriented API of Frontline's Solver SDK Platform -- which includes a complete toolkit for Monte Carlo simulation. This makes it easier to move an application from Excel to a custom program written in C/C++, Visual Basic, VB.NET, Java or MATLAB.
Why wait? You can download and run the RSESetup program that installs the full-power Risk Solver Engine software with a free 15-day trial license. You can use every feature of the software, solve real problems, examine the full User Guide and Help, and get expert technical support -- all without any obligation.
Just click here to register and proceed to our instructions to Download Excel Products.